Arkan, Serbian Soccer and ISIL

            Franklin Foer offers an in depth view into the unfamiliar word of Serbian soccer, one dominated by violence, intimidation and Mafioso’s.  Arkan, a dangerous assassin, purchases the Serbian soccer club Obilic and uses unconventional tactics, such as death threats and intimidation to win the national championship.  ISIL seems to be doing the same, with a more deadly intention and anti-establishment sentiment.

            ISIL is very similar to the Serbian mobster, Arkan.  ISIL uses intimidation very well, through well-produced videos of beheadings and open threats to Americans.  Arkan did the same with any rival soccer team coming to play in his stadium.  He would routinely threaten players of the opposing team, arm fans inside the stadium with weapons and verbally abusing the opposing team during half time in the locker room.  In both cases, these actions led the actors to become recognized by more and more people, and feared by important ones.  Politicians and Americans are afraid of ISIL just as rival players and fans were afraid of Arkan and Obilic.  But this is only the first part of the story of Obilic.

            Once credibility and fear was established, there was a counteroffensive from other team owners in Serbia.  They aligned together and told Arkan that his intimidation tactics would not work against them.  They called his bluff.  We are starting to see this with the conflict against ISIL.  The US and other Western targets of theirs are realizing that their capabilities may not be all that they bragged about and intimidation tactics don’t work against powerful forces.  That’s when the US retaliated and started killing off their leadership, similar to how the other team owners treated Arkan.

            The story concludes with the assassination of Arkan and the dethroning of Obilic, as well as the political party supported by Arkan.  Although this part has not yet happened in the conflict against ISIL, one can’t help but speculate due to the striking similarities as to how both actors have used their power.  Although ISIL may not necessarily be physically killed off like Arkan was, ultimately his source of illegitimate power collapsed from under him and led to his demise.  The same may happen with ISIL, when external pressure and unrest causes them to collapse.  Although there are a lot of differences between the two situations, illegitimate power and unconventional methods of keeping it, such as intimidation and threats rarely lead to successful long-term power.

            Overall, the differences between ISIL and Arkan may be fundamentally different, but their trajectories and progressions are very similar.  From this, however premature it may be to make judgments about the future of ISIL, one can’t help but wonder if the future of ISIL ends similarly to the demise of Arkan.